S&P500 Elliott Wave Analysis 17 Apr 2012

This entry was posted by Tuesday, 17 April, 2012
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In my S&P500 Technical Analysis Updated on 11 Apr 2012 I suggested that “5 mini Elliott waves should be complete at the 1357 low”  and was looking for a wave 2 bounce to the 1398-1402 level ideally on or before the 18th Apr.

1357 was the low vs the 1356 forecast. Since then the market has consolidated and rebounded and although it is not there yet, the market reached as high as 1391 earlier today and looks as though it is on course to hit the price and time targets…..read more in the stock market trading forums.

S&P500 Technical Analysis Chart



S&P500 Elliott Wave Analysis 11 Apr 2012

This entry was posted by Wednesday, 11 April, 2012
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S&P500 Technical Analysis Updated From 28 Mar 2012

5 mini Elliott waves should be complete at the 1357 low……now looking for a wave 2 bounce.

View my shorter term Elliott Wave analysis chart.

S&P500 Technical Analysis Chart

David Banister: Is it safe to start buying Gold Stocks yet?

This entry was posted by Thursday, 5 April, 2012

David A Banister – www.ActiveTradingPartner.com

One of the most common questions I field from my forecast and trading subscribers is can we buy Gold stocks yet? We have seen Gold consolidating and correcting following a 34 fibonacci month rally that I discussed last fall was going to top out around 1900 per ounce. This type of rally went from October of 2008 to August of 2011 and we saw Gold rally from $680 to $1900 per ounce during that time.

In order to work off the bullish sentiment that was at parabolic extremes, Gold is required to spend a reasonable amount of time in relation to the prior 34 month move to wash out the sentiment and create a strong pivot bottom. While this continues, the Gold stock index has taken it on the chin as money rotates out and into other hot areas like Technology and the Internet 2.0 social media boom. To wit, the GDX ETF peaked out last fall around 67 and current trades under 47 as of this writing.

However, there may be a silver lining developing in those dark mining stock clouds very soon. It does appear that we are in the 5th and final wave of this pessimistic decline in Gold stocks per my GDX ETF chart below. A typical bottoming pattern ends after 5 clear elliott waves have taken place, and in this case I have targets between $43-$47 per GDX share for a likely pivot low in Gold stocks. Contrarian investors may do well to begin picking the better names in the sector and “scaling in” over the next short period of time.

Gold itself has recently corrected from 1793 per ounce to 1620 in the last several weeks. This has spooked the crowd out of Gold and put further pressure on the Gold mining stocks as well. Should Gold hold the $1620’s area and rebound past $1691 you will see the Gold stocks take off just ahead of that and from these 43-46 levels on the GDX ETF provide very strong returns to investors with the iron stomachs.

The best way to make money long term in the market and to grow your capital is to develop a method where you can define your risk levels within reason near the apex of a downside move, and then scale into that final apex and catch the rally on the upside. This is difficult to do but at my ATP service we have developed a strong methodology that takes advantage of  “herd behavioral characteristics” and takes advantage of typical panic selling and panic buying to do just the opposite. We have not yet bought into the Gold Stock sector but I assume fairly soon we will be dipping our toes in the water while others have all rushed out of the sector right near the apex lows.

David talks live about MRM method
You can also download the mp3 audio file for this interview on your computer by clicking here WITH A RIGHT BUTTON CLICK and selecting SAVE FILE AS from the drop down menu.


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S&P 500 Technical Analysis 28 Mar 2012

This entry was posted by Wednesday, 28 March, 2012
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S&P 500 Technical Analysis updated from 21 Mar 2012

1418 was slightly exceeded to 1419.15 but the upper channel trend line remained solid resistance.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis 28 Mar 2012

S&P500 Technical Analysis 28 Mar 2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis 21 Mar 2012

This entry was posted by Wednesday, 21 March, 2012

This is one of the Elliott wave counts that I have been following in the Insider Trading forums.

1418 is the line in the sand for the abc elliott wave count…..there are a number of reasons why this wave count should play out, so as long as 1418 holds this could move down into the long term target zone.

 

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis 21 Mar 2012

Chris Vermeulen: Gold, Silver, Oil and the Fear Index Trends

This entry was posted by Monday, 19 March, 2012
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This week may provide some trading opportunities for us if all goes well now that most traders are investors are all giddy about stocks again. Last week we saw money move out of bonds and into stocks and the bullishness vibe in the air reminds of many market peaks just before a 5%+ correction in stocks.

Depending how the SP500
 unfolds we may be going long or short equities, long precious metals, long bonds, and our VXX trade may spike in our favor.

Bonds: After last week’s strong move down in bonds as the HERD moved out of bonds and into stocks it may be providing us an opportunity to catch a dip or bounce in the price of bonds. If the stock market sees strong selling this week money will run back into bonds.

Looking at precious metals it looks as though gold, gold miners and silver may still head lower this week. The charts are still bearish and pointing to another multi percent drop in value. Gold will look bullish around $1600, Gold miners (GDX) around $48, and Silver around $30 but we need to see one more wave of strong distribution selling for that to take place.

Crude oil has recovered nicely from its 5 wave correction which shook us out of the trade for a profit. I still like the chart for higher prices but with it trading at resistance and a high possibility of sellers stepping back in at this level I am not getting involved here.

The SP500 made a new high last night but has run into sellers early this morning taking prices straight back down. The chart in pre-market looks as though we will see lower stock prices later today and with any luck the fear index (VIX) will continue to rise in our favor.

Watch Live Video Analysiswww.thetechnicaltraders.com/ETF-trading-videos/

Chris Vermeulen
www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

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