S&P500 Elliott Wave Analysis Update

This entry was posted by Wednesday, 8 September, 2010

The S&P500 Elliott Wave Analysis Updated from last week shows the tight range that we are trading in since hitting our 1105 target on the nose and on time.

Our timing studies were looking for an intermediate high centered on the weekend so could have come in a bit later but when a price target and a timing target comes in together, it is always a powerful signal :-)

A Medium Term low should be in place at the recent Triple Bottom low as we expected. It was slightly early so that was another bullish indicator in the medium term. The Intermediate cycle is now in an inversion zone so is less useful at this point.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis

The zoom out of the chart shows how the bigger picture is unfolding and that 1040 low is now a key pivot for medium term traders.

The intermediate time frame has already done enough to satisfy the minimum required and although that does not technically mean that it is complete we feel that if it were to break down again from here, that it would be in danger of a larger move down.

There is no need to change to our position of being medium term bullish yet.

The Red path through the lower target area on the chart at 1168 is our preferred option at this time and already we are seeing an increased general awareness of that Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern as the bears give up waiting on that elusive Head and Shoulders pattern to play out.

Much of the expectation from the trading community for that Head and Shoulders playing out was based on the statistics that September is historically the worst month in the calendar year for stocks but if our medium term time studies are correct, that will not be that case this year, although the bulk of the move may be in place already.

Lets see where the boys want to take us and go with it.

  • gekko

    trying a gapfill trade here with a stop just above 1110

  • gekko
  • gekko

    not looking good for a gapfill! :-(

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Yep, looking like a break out and that the idea that the intermediate low is in was on the money.

    Sorry mate, dont want any reversals back down, gap fill is dodgy but possible so didnt want to sway you.

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Your bling trade should be offsetting it though :-)

  • gekko

    yep! BLING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! …..LOL!

    Added at 1110 resistance, will take 1105 if i get it!

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    1115 possible target for today.

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Spx – not bling ;-) )

  • gekko

    LOL…U had me all excited….lol! tempted to take a small hit on this trade! but still hopefull of 1105

  • gekko

    took 4 points on add on!

  • gekko

    out for all sp trades for small loss!

  • griz12

    Bling scalps have been working a treat.
    Also out of some ARM stocks which I had for years it seems…..

  • gekko

    Nice One Griz ….just banked 10 points on bling too….will re-enter if it pops above 1250 again…..

    Good call again Kenny!………………..

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Thanks Gekko :-)

    Yep, Gold hit and runs have been good, would really like to see 1239 print.

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Banked the swing short on Gold at 37.5 :-) )

    Still think there should be plenty more down to come but might get a better entry to get back in or will just keep going with the intraday stuff.

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Would get heavily short again at 54ish if it can get there.

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Ah man WTF….1253 already ;-)

    Need 54 !!! :-)

  • griz12

    Excellent Kenny!

    Hope Gekko had a limit sell on GOLD.

    I should have left one…but was at work and forgot.

  • gekko

    Grrr…. No such luck Griz…. missed my opportunity, but have put in a limit this time…..

    Griz not sure if ur interested in Arm or were just trading it but fat profits are doing a free analysis on the stock, thru moneyweek a mag i subscribe to!

    http://www.fatprophets.eu/form/september2010/moneyweek.php

    • griz12

      Hi Gekko,

      Thanks for the above info but I used to trade ARM in my ISA when I first started, along with many other shares and met many traders on the III site, then moved to Advfn, Kpad etc. etc. I don’t post much as I do not have the technical knowledge of charts but have learnt along the various years.
      Some days are too busy for me as busy working mum….

  • gekko
  • Chris_chapman

    This move up is relentless. When all the bears have thrown in the towel I imagine it’ll drop,

  • Chester

    Brilliant analysis Kenny, you got that 25th August low spot on.

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Thanks Chris.

  • Chris_chapman

    I’m rather kicking myself because I was following UBends 4 year cycle with a heavy drop into October 8th timeframe, so, as a result have been out of the market for a while now. In hindsight following your path would have been much wiser.

  • GEKKO

    Chris good think is u never got caught short so at least thats a blessing….
    Griz I am in the same boat as u dont think I have much to offer technically and work full time so struggle to
    do this propoerly and its more of a hobby ( which I know makes this game virtually impossible )
    but as u i do feel I am learning and this site has helped me move on in leaps and bounds…. I would normally have been trading this and caught short from waaay lower, instead I have traded tightly and had some longs to boot!

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    Needed 54………………………. :-) )

  • Chester

    Kenny ..What do you mean ‘ Needed 54 ‘ ?

  • http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/ Kenny

    It was a reference to the comments further down this page about my target for Gold…….already got stopped out on a short from there as Gold is on Viagra today so is no longer relevant.

  • Pingback: Traders Day Trading Blog - S&P500 – Don’t Fall in Love With the Upside! at Kenny's Blog-Trading With Technical Analysis Charts!