SP500 Elliott Wave Analysis
SP500 Elliott Wave analysis and technical analysis updates for 10 Aug 2011
View the previous SP500 Elliott Waves analysis charts from 12 July 2011
It has been quite a while since I published my last Elliott Wave charts. There was really no reason to update them as the count continued to play out as expected.
Short term updates and discussions are now conducted in our sites new Trading Forums.
Regular visitors to Kennys Elliott Waves Blog may remember that my long term target for this larger move down was 160-200 points from the 1370 high…this target was put in place the week before the market topped on our 1370 level, and then confirmed in the weekly newsletter that came out the day before 1370 sealed the turn.
This move down has been even weaker than I expected and the S&P 500 actually lost 270 points into the this weeks low, so what does that do to the Elliott Wave analysis……
SP500 Head and Shoulders Pattern
The updated S&P 500 head and shoulders chart shows that the pattern has met its forecast price target, that is not to say that it can not go any lower, it just means that the target has been met. It a normal market this would usually be enough to provide some support, but as ever, when do you know if it is going to be normal?
Despite the vertical drop, some support has been found on the extension of the channel trend line from a previous chart pattern that we were following…..this is a good example of why I very often leave selective, seemingly expired analysis on the chart. Support or resistance from the expired patterns very commonly continue to provide support and resistance as the chart develops.
I have not drawn in the supporting trend line as it is very close to a Fibonacci retracement level, but note the old inverted head and shoulders pattern on this chart and where the market found support.
The rising Red diagonal trend line may seem a bit random, but that is where there should be some resistance and indeed, since the market opened today it has provided the resistance that should be expected, so far.
The updated S&P 500 Elliott Wave analysis chart shows the preferred Blue Elliott Wave count that we have been following, for what seems like for forever now and is always a good sign of the validity of the wave count.
If the market has found an intermediate low here, we should now get a sideways move into next week, creating an Elliott fourth wave before another scary drop to compete the larger wave 3, or B.
SP500 Elliott Wave Analysis
I am always wary of moves that seem inevitable as they almost always seem to be able to provide a surprise move that ‘nobody’ expected….as such, I always need an alternative to ‘show me what the other guy see’s’, and in this case it is my alternative version of the Elliott Wave Triangle that the world was following not so long ago.
Long time readers of my analysis will remember that this is exactly the same pattern that I had at the 2007 top….I could only find a few of the old charts, here the are for interest and comparison of Elliott Wave triangle count and the resulting moves…..
SP500 Elliott Wave Triangle Charts from 2007-2008
Join the discussion in the new Traders Day Trading Trading Forums